‘Significant’ progress by Police Scotland in understanding demand on services

HM Inspectorate of Constabulary in Scotland (HMICS) commended the “good progress” made in analysing and managing the demand on policing, which has been heightened by the twin pressures of the impending UN climate change conference and continuing to police Covid-19 restrictions.

In particular, inspectors said Police Scotland has developed a “more sophisticated demand approach” compared with other UK forces.

However, the report said there are still areas for further improvement, including the need for a structured engagement model to support the effective analysis and interpretation of demand information.

The assurance review by HMICS says being able to articulate the wide and competing demands for policing is not a new concept, but has become more acute as pressures on budgets have increased.

Gill Imery QPM, HM Chief Inspector of Constabulary in Scotland, said: “Demand data and analysis are vital for making informed plans for resources and budget, and to create a sustainable model of policing. The ultimate aim must be to ensure that public resources are deployed to best meet the needs of the public.

“This inspection highlights the significant efforts the service has made to develop its understanding of demand, as well as identifying some areas for improvement. There have been various attempts over the years to capture the demand for policing and indeed it featured in the work leading to the formation of the single national service.

”Present circumstances make it all the more important for Police Scotland to equip itself with reliable and accessible information on current and future demand, assets and resources, to inform the strategic direction of the service.”

Ms Imery said Police Scotland’s Demand and Productivity Unit (DPU) plays an important part, and they were impressed its capability to “deliver sophisticated tools that are of real benefit to policing”.

During the review, comparison was made with other UK forces, which rely predominantly on volumetric information, and Police Scotland was found to have developed a more sophisticated approach to assessing demand. However, HMICS said there was still room for improvement, particularly in respect of the forecasting of demand.

The main factors hindering the service’s progress were the limitations on the small capacity of the DPU, not its capability, and the lack of a delivery plan informed by the strategic and tactical needs of the organisation.

The report notes a lack of consistency across Police Scotland in the terminology used and a lack of trust and understanding of the value of demand information within the organisation. There was also minimal evidence that demand analysis was considered in financial and investment decision making.

Mrs Imery added: “There requires to be a fundamental culture shift from reactive to increasingly proactive decision-making and planning. The inconsistencies identified speak to a lack of overall clarity about how the demand approach should be used to impact on policing delivery for the benefit of communities.

”There are still many areas of internal, hidden, unknown or unmet demand, which remain a challenge to quantify and have not yet been fully identified or addressed. Where demand information has been used, for example in the restructuring of national tasking and coordinating processes, it has been beneficial and led to improvements.”

She said the consequence of inherited levels of officer and staff numbers has been an issue since the inception of Police Scotland with current estimations by the service on future staffing based on judgment with limited demand-led evidence.

HMICS says it is essential that demand analysis and management are used more effectively to demonstrate the requirement for resources to ensure transparency and to create a sustainable policing model.

This inspection assessed the Police Scotland approach in four areas:

• The appropriateness of the approach to developing demand information, analysis and management;
• The alignment of the demand approach with the overall strategic framework, including links with the Strategic Workforce Plan and Target Operating Model;
• The application of demand information to support resource planning and tasking and coordination; and
• The anticipation or forecasting of demand, using demand information to inform medium to long term planning.

The report contains 12 recommendations and identifies a number of areas for further development, which HMICS says will help Police Scotland meet future financial and operational challenges. These include integrating the development of the annual demand baseline product with the force strategic assessment to ensure a more strategic focus, consistency of approach and address areas where demand information is currently lacking.