UKSA Downgrades Police Crime Statistics

The UK Statistics Authority (UKSA) has downgraded police recorded crime statistics following recent allegations that they have been manipulated.

The UKSA said it is removing its designation to the figures as it can no longer conclude that they are compliant with its code of practice.

In a report published today, it said: “This report concludes that further evidence has emerged in relation to recorded crime data which raises questions about ongoing compliance with the Code of Practice, and about the extent of ongoing compliance.”

It highlighted that there is accumulating evidence that suggests the underlying data on crimes recorded by the police may not be reliable, including assessments made by Her Majesty’s Inspectorate of Constabulary (HMIC); the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) report of January 2013, which raised concerns that the degree of compliance with the standards for police crime recording may be falling; and high-profile concerns raised at the Public Administration Select Committee (PASC) and the Home Affairs Select Committee (HASC).

Several former and serving officers gave evidence to the PASC in November accusing the Metropolitan Police Service (MPS) and West Midlands Police of downgrading crime reports or making reports “disappear”.

On January 8, the MPS commissioner, Sir Bernard Hogan-Howe, told the committee that some of the whistleblowers’ claims have validity and need to be investigated and HM Chief Inspector of Constabulary, Tom Winsor, said he expects to find crime statistics have been manipulated by forces when HMIC begins inspections in February.

The UKSA report said: “The Authority also considers that ONS does not have sufficient information about the quality of recorded crime data to:

• provide assurance that the statistics based on these data meet users’ needs; and

• ensure that users are made fully aware of the limitations of the recorded crime statistics and the impact that these have on their use of the statistics.

“The Authority further considers that ONS will not be able to gather the information it needs to inform these considerations in the usual period allowed for meeting requirements from assessments.”

“Therefore, the Authority has removed the National Statistics designation from statistics based on recorded crime data.”

The national policing lead on crime statistics, Chief Constable Jeff Farrar, said: “We are very disappointed in the move made today by the UK Statistics Authority to remove the National Statistics designation on statistics arising out of recorded crime data.

“It comes at a time when the service is seeking to make crime stats more transparent, more accountable and assure the public of both the figures’ accuracy and their integrity.

“Statistics play a vital role in holding the police accountable for the work they do, assuring the public of the service’s ongoing fight against crime and reassuring them with regard to the safety of their communities.

“Our work on improving the production of stats will go on regardless of today’s decision, and we hope to see the National Statistics designation restored very shortly.”

The UKSA made a series of requirements, including those essential to regain designated status and other suggestions to improve the quality of recording.

It said it will review the status of the statistics when the ONS has further information about the quality of these data, and the full range of user needs. Following the receipt of further information, the UKSA proposes to conduct a new re-assessment of crime statistics in England and Wales.

Essential to enable designation:

1 Extend the published information about uses of crime statistics and users’ needs in relation to the statistics.

2 Provide more information to users about the nature and extent of changes made to police records, and how to interpret changes in the published crime statistics from one reference period to another.

3 Publish information about the roles and responsibilities of the departments involved in the produc