Terrorism threat level in Northern Ireland reduced for first time in 12 years

The change from ‘severe’ to ‘substantial’ follows an assessment by MI5 that the threat from Northern Ireland-related terrorism had reduced from ‘highly likely’ to ‘likely’.

This is the first time that this threat level has been lowered since it was initially published in 2010.

The move to substantial, however, means that an attack is still ‘likely’ and may occur without further warning.

Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) Chief Constable Simon Byrne said the reduction was “significant” and signals a success in the long-term efforts to prevent attacks.

Announcing the change on Tuesday (March 22), Northern Ireland Secretary Brandon Lewis said: “The fact that the threat level is being lowered from where it has been since September 2010 is a testament to the Government’s ongoing commitment to protecting the peace process and tackling Northern Ireland-related terrorism, as well as the tremendous efforts of the PSNI and MI5 for their hard won gains over the past decade that have helped to make Northern Ireland a safer place to live and work.

“Despite the change in the threat level, terrorism remains one of the most direct and immediate risks to our national security and to communities in Northern Ireland. There remains a small group of people determined to destabilise the political settlement in Northern Ireland through acts of terrorism.

“MI5, alongside our partners, will continue to work around the clock to tackle the threat from terrorism in all its forms, in our mission to keep the country safe.”

Mr Byrne said he welcomed the reduction of the Northern Ireland-related terrorism threat level from severe to substantial, adding: “The independent assessment means the threat has moved from an attack is ‘highly likely’ to ‘likely’.

“This is significant as it signals a success in the long-term efforts made by police officers and staff, our partners, and in particular the community, in achieving the kind of society that we all want and deserve.

“The successes that we have achieved over recent years, in preventing attacks, investigating and pursuing groups including the New IRA has brought us to where we are today.

“Unfortunately, there is still a small group of people within our society who are intent on causing harm and dragging Northern Ireland back to the past. We will continue to pursue those individuals and bring them before the courts.

“The public won’t see an immediate change in how we deliver policing and our priority will remain the same, to deliver a visible, accessible and responsive community focused policing service to keep people safe.”

The Police Federation for Northern Ireland (PFNI) said the reduction in the threat level is to be welcomed across the community but it should not take away from the basic fact that officers remain targets for attack.

PFNI chair Mark Lindsay said: “From ‘severe’ to ‘substantial’ means the risk of an attack has been reduced from ‘highly likely’ to ‘likely’.

“Clearly, there is very little difference between the two levels, all of which means our officers must remain vigilant and conscious of the fact that there are still terrorist groups and individuals who would wish to inflict harm.

“This is the first time in over ten years that the threat level has reduced and my earnest hope is that it is indicative of a society that is becoming a more normal place to live.

“The credit for this is in no small way due to the incredibly hard work carried out by PSNI officers and their partner agencies, who working with communities, have continued to make society safer.”

The threat level is subject to continuous review by MI5, and judgments about the threat are based on a wide range of information.