Power of prevention

The announcement of the Neighbourhood Policing Guarantee sets out the Government’s plan to tackle anti-social behaviour (ASB). It promises 13,000 additional neighbourhood police, and a named, contactable officer in every community.

As a former police analyst with thematic ownership of ASB and hate crime, I welcome these dedicated resources. But while accessible, visible officers will reassure some communities, analytically informed scoping, scaling and tasking is required to problem-solve for areas with chronic problems.

To get there, challenges must be addressed relating to how ASB is recorded and reported upon; how ASB is driven by, or masks, complex vulnerability; how police can ask smarter questions of their data, to task smarter solutions; and what happens when those 13,000 extra officers just aren’t enough?

Understanding ASB and vulnerability – tasking smarter

The National Incident Category List defines ASB in the categories of Personal, Nuisance and Environmental. These categories are insufficiently descriptive of the real issues reported by the public, problematising the analytical diagnosis of modus operandi, trends, and the application of hotspotting techniques.

In lieu of uplifted classifications, i2 recommends the identification of ASB using keyword reporting – for example:

• to describe groups of people who commit ASB together;
• vehicular nuisance;
• fire-setting;
• open drug use;
• neighbour ASB; and
• the street community.

This allows ASB behaviours to be understood at a granular level – allowing analysts and analytics to swiftly identify trends, linked ASB series, and true hotspots. Keyword reporting is already available to UK police in their portfolio of i2 software.

Officers and staff coordinating incident response classify call logs as ASB, or a notifiable crime, or a matter of public safety and welfare – yet real-world ASB can overlap all three categories.

Rigid categorical recording can therefore blind police analysis and analytics to risks inherent in ASB. If children are causing ASB at midnight, have they been reported missing? Are there factors that cause them to stay away from home, and what risk might they be exposed to during missing episodes? In terms of public safety and welfare, a reduction in street community crime and ASB is often best served by an integrated multiagency approach that includes housing, drug, alcohol, and mental health support. Furthermore, escalating ASB and deteriorating mental health are often the first indicators that a high harm crime is imminent. Seeing past closed categories and asking the right questions can identify crucial levers for preventing these harms. The i2 repositories at the disposal of each constabulary allow 360-degree movement through police data, exposing related threat harm risk and illuminating opportunities for early intervention.

Many problems that plague communities are driven by groups of people committing ASB together. i2 is very effective at helping police to ask smarter questions, allowing these groups to be identified and mapped for network analysis. Rather than tasking piecemeal to many individuals, i2 identifies key influencers, ringleaders and brokers. While the identification of network dynamics affords targeted disruption to dismantle harmful groups, it also identifies criminal exploiters and emerging cohorts vulnerable to exploitation.

Analysis of ASB networks can reveal predatory OCGs recruiting vulnerable children, expose CSE risk, and highlight adults at risk of cuckooing. An i2 approach to ASB allows police to intervene surgically – both targeting perpetrators and supporting a Contextual Safeguarding partnership approach to vulnerability.

Police numbers alone are not enough

An additional 13,000 police officers equates to fewer than three per beat across England and Wales.

This uplift is unlikely to reassure communities suffering from chronic ASB – repeat victims of neighbourhood hate crime; communities at risk of loss of transport links due to targeted buses and threatened drivers; seasonal fire-setting escalating to arson; groups associated with open drugs markets harassing those who speak out.

These problem areas overlap with multi-generational, multi-strand deprivation and require a strategic multi-agency response – yet funding uplift for local authorities, schools and other partner agencies lags behind police investment. Moreover, these issues require the focused tasking of police resources owned at a force rather than local level, to hotspots at peak times – requiring dedicated analysts and analytics to feed the Tactical Assessment and TTCG process.

When partnership funding is low and resources are scarce, analysis is essential for understanding how to apply strategies and tactics that will make a real, lasting difference. Your i2 system can not only deliver the analytics – it can deliver a shared partnership environment, aligned with a Contextual Safeguarding approach that police partners are already equipped to understand.

Making your data work for you

More than many crime and vulnerability thematics, ASB benefits from analytical rigour. The scale and complexity of ASB, coupled with its overlap with other thematics, necessitates a partnership problem-solving mindset. Good analysts and analytics can drive change that benefits thousands.

Every constabulary in the UK uses i2 software for intelligence analysis. We can counteract the postcode lottery of technological investment, distributing best practice and levelling the playing field. Good outcomes require careful design – making the right systems accessible in the right ways, adopting tradecraft that illuminates hidden patterns and trends, optimising data to reach swift insight. Our software tools, our deep understanding of police data, and our ability to operationalise evidence-based approaches, are accessible by all constabularies.

Contact us if you would like to know more about how to make the most of your i2 software. You already have the tools you need to make a difference – we can show you how to wield them.

i2 welcomes contact from constabularies who want to discuss how to deploy your existing software investment to best address ASB. Please email Seth.Cooke@i2group.com if you would like to express interest.