Early prison releases could cost policing £480m, PSA warns
The early release of prisoners under the Government’s new sentencing regime could cost policing around £480 million in additional demand, the Police Superintendents’ Association (PSA) has warned.
The warning comes as the new progression model comes into force today (1 October), changing the point at which some prisoners serving standard determinate sentences can be released from custody.
Under the new system, eligible offenders can be released after serving one third of their sentence, while those serving sentences for more serious offences will generally have to serve at least half in prison. More than 18,000 offenders, including those serving life and extended determinate sentences, are excluded from the changes.
The Ministry of Justice estimates that around 700 prisoners will be released on the first day of the first tranche, with further tranches scheduled through to June 2027.
Sara Crane, vice president of the PSA, said policing would be expected to deal with increased demand arising from offender monitoring, licence breaches, recalls, safeguarding concerns and further offending.
“Policing leaders have estimated that the resulting cost on policing will equate to around £480 million in police time,” she said.
“Despite this data, the government has provided no additional funding to meet that demand.”
Ms Crane said the additional work would mean forces having to divert resources from other areas of policing, including neighbourhood crime, protecting vulnerable people and supporting victims.
“Policing has once again become the service that picks up the overspill when other parts of the system reach breaking point,” she said.
The PSA is calling for an independent review of the criminal justice system, including consideration of a Royal Commission.
The Government has said the new arrangements will be accompanied by increased supervision of offenders in the community, including electronic monitoring, restrictions on movements and additional probation resources.
It says it is investing £700 million in probation and community punishment, including £100 million to expand electronic monitoring and funding for 1,300 additional probation staff.
The new progression model is being introduced in ten tranches, with the Government estimating that around 4,500 additional offenders will be released across the first days of the tranches between October 2026 and June 2027.