‘Confirmation bias’ influenced WMP’s recommendation to ban Maccabi Tel Aviv fans

His Majesty’s Chief Inspector of Constabulary, Sir Andy Cooke, has concluded that ‘confirmation bias’ “influenced the way West Midlands Police reached its recommendation to reduce ticket allocation for away fans to zero”.

His Majesty’s Inspectorate of Constabulary and Fire and Rescue Services (HMICFRS) says confirmation bias is a tendency to interpret new information as confirmation of one’s existing beliefs or theories. In policing, this can typically mean seeking out evidence that supports a predisposed view.

In his preliminary assessment of the handling and communication of information and intelligence gathered by West Midlands Police in advance of the Aston Villa v Maccabi Tel Aviv fixture, Sir Andy found that the force’s chief constable compiled inaccurate intelligence using AI, which “hallucinated” in referencing a fictitious football match.

The mishap received widespread criticism, including from the Home Secretary.

Sir Andy’s preliminary review, which followed an “urgent commission” by the Home Secretary, found that the decision to restrict ticket allocation to zero was based on oral briefings to the safety advisory group on October 7 and 16. Apart from one discrepancy, His Majesty’s Chief Inspector said he is satisfied that the oral briefings were “not materially inaccurate”.

However, a letter and report that the force provided to the safety advisory group on October 10 and 24 did contain inaccurate statements;

This included “exaggerated statements” about the behaviour of Maccabi Tel Aviv fans at the November 2024 Ajax v Maccabi Tel Aviv fixture in Amsterdam, Sir Andy said, adding: “These inaccuracies would have been in the minds of West Midlands Police commanders when they reached and communicated their preferred option.”

This has led His Majesty’s Chief Inspector to conclude that confirmation bias influenced the way the force reached and communicated its recommendation to restrict ticket allocation for away fans to zero.

Sir Andy said: “My preliminary review found that confirmation bias influenced the way West Midlands Police reached and communicated its recommendation to reduce the ticket allocation for away fans to zero.

“I have several other concerns including, but not limited to, inaccurate information in written communication, a failure to engage with the local Jewish community early enough and poor record keeping and retention of important information.

“This assessment forms part of our ongoing, wider inspection of police forces’ contributions to safety advisory groups.”

Other concerns raised in the review include:

• The force failed to engage with representatives of the local Jewish community early enough;
• In its communications, West Midlands Police placed too much emphasis on the potential and previous behaviour of Maccabi Tel Aviv fans and did not reflect wider concerns around public disorder and protest;
• The force did not set up an effective command structure during the planning phase, or declare a critical incident, even after public concerns mounted; and
• The force demonstrated poor record keeping and retention of important information.

West Midlands police and crime commissioner Simon Foster has already committed to a “formal review of evidence” following a Home Affairs Committee’s inquiry into the ban on Maccabi Tel Aviv fans.

Responding to the “ongoing scrutiny” of the ban, he said: “I acknowledge, recognise and understand the significant strength of feeling that is shared by many people, including myself, in connection with this contentious issue,” he said.

“His Majesty’s Chief Inspector of Constabulary has written a letter to the Home Secretary to set out his ‘preliminary views’, in relation to the match assessment and categorisation carried out by West Midlands Police around the Aston Villa v Maccabi Tel Aviv  on November 6, 2025.

“I have been sent that letter having had no sight of, or briefing on, its contents before today. I must now give it careful and detailed consideration.

“The letter is not the final HMICFRS report. It describes how the Chief Inspector’s views may ‘develop or change’ as more information is gathered.

“I have listened to the Home Secretary’s statement in the House of Commons and the questions that followed.

“I await the Home Affairs Select Committee report.”

Mr Foster added: “It is my statutory duty to hold the chief constable to account for the totality of policing in the West Midlands.

“In order to give all these issues full and proper consideration, I will be taking this matter to a meeting of my Accountability and Governance Board, held in public, on Tuesday January 27, 2026, and asking questions of the chief constable.

“In consideration of these matters, it is vital that all involved act in accordance with due process and the law at all times.”

James Arrowsmith, partner in the government team at UK and Ireland law firm Browne Jacobson, has helped local authorities to develop AI frameworks and delivered training on AI governance issues.

He said: “This unfortunate mishap shouldn’t lead to a pause on the integration of new technologies within public bodies, but it does expose numerous issues surrounding AI governance.

“While many organisations are ready to build AI into their processes and systems, they must recognise the way in which it has crept under the radar via AI-generated search engines and internet browser plug-ins.

“Many of their employees will already use these applications in everyday life and import them into the workplace without organisations having oversight or providing training on how to watch out for issues like the ‘hallucinations’ evident in the West Midlands Police case.

“This is why organisations must be proactive in introducing AI governance, training and oversight now, whether they have an intentionally deployed AI application or not.

“We know AI has the potential to drive time and cost efficiencies in public bodies that are severely stretched, but they must install proper AI governance in order to ensure transparency, scrutiny and human decision-making figure prominently during its use.

“The risks of ignoring this are clear – not only can it lead to unintended consequences, but wider decision-making will be questioned as a result of isolated issues and trust in our authorities will erode in the court of public opinion.”