New research reveals hidden cost of the ‘revolving door’ of prolific offending

The report, by charity Revolving Doors and Newton, a strategic delivery partner supporting public sector transformation, is the first of its kind, bringing together the insights of people with lived experience of the ‘revolving door’ of reoffending with analysis of public sector data, including case notes.

It reveals new findings about the toll that punishment without rehabilitation and key missed opportunities has on people, public finances and public services.

Revolving Doors is now calling for a joint-departmental government response across health, justice and housing. It is also requesting a focus on interventions that are known to work to address the root causes of offending and a joined-up approach that combines shared data, thinking and lived experience.

The joint analysis found that between 30,000 and 50,000 individuals make up this group, trapped in cycles of repeat offending. They are responsible for at least 130,000 crimes a year, from shoplifting and assault to drug offences and criminal damage.

They cost the criminal justice system at least £242 million annually, with a total socio-economic bill of up to £5.2 billion. This figure represents almost a quarter of all reoffending costs and is the first ever measurement of this group’s impact on public services, including the NHS, councils and social services, says the report.

Those in this group are often referred to as ‘prolific offenders’. However, the report identifies them more clearly to show they are in fact the ‘revolving door cohort’: people in crisis who cycle in and out of the justice system because of unmet health and social needs – including mental ill-health, addiction, homelessness and histories of trauma.

“Crucially, this group is not captured by existing systems such as Integrated Offender Management, which was set up to specifically target those identified as most persistently offending,” says the report.

Pavan Dhaliwal, chief executive of Revolving Doors, said: “Every day we see headlines about shoplifting and ‘prolific offenders’. This analysis reveals the real story: a small group of people, living with deep trauma and ill health, costing the country billions while receiving little meaningful support.

“The evidence is clear – we can either keep pouring money into crisis responses, or we can break the revolving door through prevention and rehabilitation.”

Ben Harris, partner at Newton, added: “By combining lived experience with cutting-edge data analysis, previously disconnected datasets and economic modelling, this report shows not just the scale of the problem, but the positive outcomes that can result from acting differently.

“It shows how bringing together and making better use of all the existing information available can change how we respond to potential repeat offenders, enabling earlier preventative actions that changes long-term outcomes for individuals.”

The report also draws on in-depth interviews from people with lived experience to show how vital it is to address their needs and support them. It says missed opportunities create a ‘revolving door’ effect, where public services react to crises, rather than prevent them.

Featuring detailed timelines of individual experiences, it shows that trauma and abuse – very often in childhood –is routinely the starting point for people’s entrapment in the revolving door, and that their first point of contact with the justice system is often as a victim.

As shoplifting rates spiral upwards, a ‘winter of action’ was recently declared by Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood.

However, the report makes clear that longer-term, more joined-up approaches are key to successfully tackling persistent low-level reoffending.

It highlights how earlier intervention and targeted community-based support could free up capacity in prisons, courts and probation, while reducing anti-social behaviour and victimisation.

Revolving Doors has made the following recommendations as a result of the analysis:

• Early multi-agency support in schools and families;
• Pre-arrest diversion and reformed community sentences;
• Peer support from those with lived experience;
• Trauma-informed services rooted in local communities; and
• Cross-government leadership to drive reform.

Ms Dhaliwal added: “At a time when the justice system is on its knees, prevention over punishment isn’t just more humane – it’s the only credible way to cut crime and costs.”