Notting Hill Carnival crowd numbers must be reviewed before ‘mass casualty event’ occurs, warns committee

It is urging the Mayor of London to commission a review of crowd density and safety at the event, including a full review of pinch points and strict guidance for the number of stewards required across the Carnival.

It follows the committee’s investigation into public order policing in London, specifically looking at the Carnival, policing of football and protests related to the conflict in Gaza.

The committee found that the Metropolitan Police Service (MPS) continues to raise concerns about the risk of a crush scenario at Notting Hill Carnival, due to high crowd density and inadequate stewarding provision from the organisers.

“The committee shares these concerns,” it added.

“Increased public order demand is putting the Met under strain, and this has not been matched with an increase in funding from the Government.

“The increase that the Government did announce in December 2024 – in the form of an increased National and International Capital Cities (NICC) grant – does not go far enough towards bridging the financial shortfall.

“Officers who have undertaken specialist public order training are now stepping back from public order work in increasing numbers, due to the demand of regular weekend shifts and impact on family life.”

The committee said the MPS “continues to rely on ‘abstraction’”, where local officers are taken away from regular duties at short notice to support public order operations in central London.

“Taking neighbourhood officers away from their regular duties is having a continuing impact on local policing services,” it added.

The committee said that while Notting Hill Carnival is an important date in London’s calendar, attracting around two million visitors each year, the volume of people “creates a complex policing challenge”.

As part of its policing operation for the 2024 Carnival, the MPS had around 7,000 officers on duty, drawn from local policing teams as well as specialist units, with a total of around 14,000 officer shifts across the whole event.

Among the recommendations from the committee’s report, ‘Public order policing – the Met’s approach’, is for the Government to ensure the NICC grant it provides to the MPS is updated yearly in line with inflation and operational requirements.

In addition, the MPS should publish its Aid Reduction Plan, or a summary of the plan, to provide “reassurance to local communities concerned about the impact of abstractions on neighbourhood policing”.

Susan Hall AM, chair of the London Assembly Police and Crime Committee, said: “The Carnival is an important part of London’s cultural calendar. Bringing millions of visitors to London is essential for the economy and providing a wide range of events for Londoners is important for the city.

“However, we have seen and heard a number of incredibly worrying incidents with crowd density at the event, which severely impacts the Met’s ability to keep visitors safe or to respond to any incidents that occur.

“The Met told us during our investigation that there is a real possibility of a mass casualty event, and we cannot stand by and wait for a tragic incident to happen, action must be taken.

“Two people tragically lost their lives at last year’s event due to violent crime, and it is absolutely essential that the Met is on hand to carry out its duties, and not fill in for a lack of stewarding from the organisers.

“We urge the mayor to commission a review of crowd density and safety at the Carnival, to ensure the event is well managed and to let the Met do its job in keeping us safe.”